Toward a Timber Asset Account for the United States: A Pilot Account for Georgia
Summary
Develops a timber asset account for Georgia using a novel discount timber price method to value standing timber stocks, estimating total timber assets at $5.9 billion including $244 million in pre-merchantable timber.
Abstract
The U.S. national balance sheet does not include standing timber, despite its economic significance. This paper develops a timber asset account for Georgia, the nation’s leading timber-producing state. The central challenge is valuing trees not yet harvestable. We introduce the “discount timber price” method, a variant of the OECD’s preferred consumption value method, which values pre-merchantable stands by discounting observed stumpage prices back through the growth cycle. Applied to southern yellow pine in Georgia, we estimate total timber assets of $5.9 billion in 2023, with pre-merchantable timber contributing $244 million. The method is designed for straightforward implementation using existing Forest Inventory and Analysis data and can be extended to other species and regions toward a national timber account.
Why It Matters
Forests provide enormous economic value, yet this value is largely invisible in traditional economic statistics. The U.S. national economic accounts, maintained by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, provide the official picture of the nation’s wealth — but standing timber is not currently on the balance sheet. By developing a tractable methodology for timber asset accounting, this research enables:
- Integration of forest resource values into the national balance sheet
- Better understanding of how forest management decisions affect long-term timber stocks
- Comparison of U.S. timber wealth with international natural capital accounts
- A framework that can scale from state-level pilots to a full national timber account
Key Findings
- Georgia’s total timber assets are estimated at $5.94 billion in 2023, with sawtimber accounting for $4.96 billion, pulpwood $732 million, and pre-merchantable timber $244 million
- The discount timber price method produces conservative estimates — desirable for national accounting where overstating asset values carries greater risk than understating them
- Loblolly pine dominates every category, representing about 70% of pre-merchantable volume, reflecting its faster growth and shorter rotation relative to longleaf, slash, and shortleaf pine
- The methodology can be extended nationally using existing FIA data and regional stumpage prices, with the primary barrier being assembly of consistent price data across all forested regions
Methodology
The paper introduces the discount timber price method for valuing pre-merchantable timber. The approach uses observed stumpage prices for merchantable timber and discounts them back through the growth cycle based on tree size classes, using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) microdata and Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth projections. Species analyzed include loblolly pine, longleaf pine, shortleaf pine, and slash pine across North and South Georgia regions. Stumpage price data comes from TimberMart-South quarterly reports. Results are presented in the SEEA (System of Environmental-Economic Accounting) asset account format.
Data and Code
- Forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service FIA program
- Growth and yield projections from the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) Southern variant
- Stumpage prices from TimberMart-South quarterly reports
- Valuation computed using the pyFVS growth simulator