An Empirical Analysis of US Land-use Change Under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

This study empirically estimates the effects of climate on land-use change across the conterminous United States and uses the empirical model to simulate the effects of a range of future climate change scenarios on the allocation of land to forestry, agriculture, and development.

Our empirical design develops linkages between climate and the net economic returns to the major US land-uses, and establishes an empirical link between net returns and land-use conversion decisions.

Why It Matters

Land use decisions have cascading effects on:

• Carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions
• Food production and agricultural economics
• Urban development patterns
• Ecosystem services and biodiversity

Understanding how climate drives these decisions is essential for long-term planning.

Key Findings

1. Climate significantly influences land-use decisions through its effects on economic returns
2. Different climate scenarios produce substantially different spatial patterns of land-use change
3. The model combines Ricardian estimates of climate effects on forestry with new estimates for crop and developed land returns
4. Results support the RPA Assessment’s scenario-based projections of U.S. land resources

Methodology

We combine:

• Previously estimated Ricardian functions for climate effects on forest net returns
• New Ricardian estimations of crop and developed land net returns
• An empirical model linking net returns to land-use conversion probabilities

This integrated approach allows us to project land-use change under multiple IPCC climate scenarios.

Citation

Mihiar, C., & Lewis, D. J. (2023). An Empirical Analysis of US Land-use Change Under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.82