A Major Shift in U.S. Land Development Avoids Significant Losses in Forest and Agricultural Land

Abstract

We analyze U.S. land development patterns from 1982 to 2015, documenting a major shift in development rates that began around 2000. The rate at which forest and agricultural land was converted to housing and urbanized landscapes increased during the 1980s and 1990s but began declining around 2000.

We find that rising gas prices were the largest factor that helped bring land development rates back down from 2000-2015, preventing the development of 4.19 million acres of forest and agricultural land.

Why It Matters

Understanding the drivers of land development is crucial for:

• Climate policy and carbon emissions from land use change
• Agricultural land preservation
• Forest conservation and ecosystem services
• Urban planning and transportation policy

Key Findings

1. U.S. land development rates rapidly declined after 2000, making development increasingly denser
2. Rising incomes and low gas prices spurred increasing development in the 1980s and 1990s
3. Rising gas prices from 2000-2015 prevented development of 4.19 million acres
4. Results highlight a mechanism through which carbon taxes could discourage sprawling development

Policy Implications

Our results highlight an important mechanism through which a tax on carbon would discourage new development, namely by reducing incentives for people to live relatively far from their place of work.

Citation

Bigelow, D. P., Lewis, D. J., & Mihiar, C. (2022). A Major Shift in U.S. Land Development Avoids Significant Losses in Forest and Agricultural Land. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), 024007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4537