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Dissertation

Essays on Climate Change and Land Use in the United States

Christopher Mihiar • Oregon State University, Department of Applied Economics • 2018
land use change climate change econometric modeling forestry economics Ricardian analysis

Summary

Doctoral dissertation examining how climate change affects land use decisions and forestland values across the United States, using econometric modeling to project transitions between forests, agriculture, and development.

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the complex interactions between climate change, economic conditions, and land use transitions in the United States. Using econometric Ricardian models and scenario analysis, I examine how climate affects the economic returns to different land uses and how these returns influence land conversion decisions.

The research develops integrated frameworks linking climate variables to forestry, agricultural, and development outcomes, with projections extending through 2070 under multiple IPCC climate scenarios.

Why It Matters

Land use decisions made today have lasting consequences for:

  • Carbon sequestration and climate mitigation potential
  • Biodiversity and habitat availability
  • Water resources and watershed health
  • Rural economies and agricultural production
  • Forest product markets and timber supply

Understanding how land use responds to changing climate and economic conditions helps inform policy decisions at local, regional, and national scales.

Research Contributions

  1. Developed a Ricardian framework for estimating climate effects on forestland values across 11 distinct forest types
  2. Quantified the value of adaptation at the extensive margin—the ability to shift between forest types as climate changes
  3. Created empirical linkages between climate, economic returns, and land-use conversion decisions
  4. Provided foundational analysis supporting the USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment scenarios

Advisor

David J. Lewis, Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University

  • Mihiar, C., & Lewis, D. J. (2021). Climate, Adaptation, and the Value of Forestland. Land Economics, 97(4), 911-932.
  • Mihiar, C., & Lewis, D. J. (2023). An Empirical Analysis of US Land-use Change Under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios. JAAEA, 2(2).
  • Bigelow, D. P., Lewis, D. J., & Mihiar, C. (2022). A Major Shift in U.S. Land Development. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2).
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