Report
County-level Land-use Projections for the Conterminous United States, 2020-2070, Used in the 2020 RPA Assessment
Christopher Mihiar, David J. Lewis, John W. Coulston • USDA Forest Service 2020 RPA Assessment • 2023
land use projections RPA Assessment climate scenarios county-level analysis
Summary
Official land-use projections for the 2020 RPA Assessment covering six land-use categories across 3,000+ counties under multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios through 2070.
Abstract
This report provides county-level land-use projections for the conterminous United States from 2020 to 2070, developed for use in the USDA Forest Service 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. Projections cover six major land-use categories across more than 3,000 counties under multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
Why It Matters
Long-range land-use projections are essential for:
- Strategic planning for America’s renewable resources
- Understanding how climate and economic trends will reshape the landscape
- Informing forest conservation and management priorities
- Supporting policy decisions on land use at regional and national scales
Key Findings
- Land-use change patterns vary substantially across climate and socioeconomic scenarios
- Forest loss is projected to be greatest in the Southeast under high-development scenarios
- Agricultural land faces competing pressures from both development and climate-driven productivity shifts
- County-level resolution reveals important regional heterogeneity masked by national aggregates
Citation
Mihiar, C., Lewis, D. J., & Coulston, J. W. (2023). County-level land-use projections for the conterminous United States, 2020-2070, used in the 2020 RPA Assessment. USDA Forest Service.