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An Empirical Analysis of Climate Uncertainty and Land-use Transitions in the US Pacific and Mountain Regions

Jianhong E. Mu, Christopher Mihiar, David J. Lewis, Benjamin Sleeter, John T. Abatzoglou • Working paper • 2016
climate uncertainty land use transitions Pacific Northwest Mountain West

Summary

Examines how climate uncertainty affects land-use transition probabilities in the western US Pacific and Mountain regions, revealing how uncertain climate futures complicate land-use planning.

Abstract

Climate change introduces significant uncertainty into land-use decision-making, yet most land-use models treat climate projections as deterministic inputs. This study empirically examines how climate uncertainty affects land-use transition probabilities in the US Pacific and Mountain regions, where climate variability is particularly pronounced.

Why It Matters

Understanding the role of climate uncertainty in land-use change is important for:

  • Robust land-use planning under uncertain futures
  • Risk assessment for forestry and agricultural investments
  • Climate adaptation strategies in the western US
  • Improving the reliability of land-use projections

Key Findings

  1. Climate uncertainty significantly affects estimated land-use transition probabilities
  2. The Pacific and Mountain regions exhibit high sensitivity to climate variability
  3. Deterministic climate projections may understate the range of plausible land-use outcomes
  4. Results highlight the importance of scenario-based approaches to land-use planning

Citation

Mu, J. E., Mihiar, C., Lewis, D. J., Sleeter, B., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2016). An empirical analysis of climate uncertainty and land-use transitions in the US Pacific and Mountain regions.

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