An Empirical Analysis of Climate Uncertainty and Land-use Transitions in the US Pacific and Mountain Regions
Summary
Examines how climate uncertainty affects land-use transition probabilities in the western US Pacific and Mountain regions, revealing how uncertain climate futures complicate land-use planning.
Abstract
Climate change introduces significant uncertainty into land-use decision-making, yet most land-use models treat climate projections as deterministic inputs. This study empirically examines how climate uncertainty affects land-use transition probabilities in the US Pacific and Mountain regions, where climate variability is particularly pronounced.
Why It Matters
Understanding the role of climate uncertainty in land-use change is important for:
- Robust land-use planning under uncertain futures
- Risk assessment for forestry and agricultural investments
- Climate adaptation strategies in the western US
- Improving the reliability of land-use projections
Key Findings
- Climate uncertainty significantly affects estimated land-use transition probabilities
- The Pacific and Mountain regions exhibit high sensitivity to climate variability
- Deterministic climate projections may understate the range of plausible land-use outcomes
- Results highlight the importance of scenario-based approaches to land-use planning
Citation
Mu, J. E., Mihiar, C., Lewis, D. J., Sleeter, B., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2016). An empirical analysis of climate uncertainty and land-use transitions in the US Pacific and Mountain regions.